Summer weather predictions are very popular at this time of year when people begin to get out and about more soaking up the sun. People like to know what’s in store so they can plan holidays, activites and sports training to get the most out their summer.
The Met Office has stopped issuing long range forecasts because it kept getting them wrong! There is one man who has been consistently accurate, Piers Corbyn from weatheraction.com. He knows his stuff, and has developed his own forecasting techniques which factor in the influences of the sun and the moon have on the Earth’s weather systems. His techniques, in my opinion are the next step forward in the future of weather forecast. The science has come a long way since the days of just using a barometer, which would show you the pressure trend for a few hours.
Think of it this way, if you have a bubble, and look at it you can see the rainbow colours moving around in a predictable fashion, these movements can be modelled using similar techniques to what the met office uses in its short term forecasting. But these rainbow colours moving around are also open to external influences (which the met office neglects, I think.). Take your bubble again, now blow on it and you’ll see you can actually change the movement of the rainbow colours around the surface… this is similar to what Piers Corbyn factors into his forecast. Over time the Earth is open to external influences such as the Sun and the Moon, so by taking these into account, his long term forecasts are incredibly accurate, why the BBC basically refuse to acknowledge his existence baffles me, I’ve only seen him on one BBC interview, but he has been on tv and radio numerous times all over the world!
Going by the saying “ash before oak, in for a soak” and “oak before ash, in for a splash” would mean we’re in for a pretty much fine summer, in this area at least. I don’t think its going to be a scorcher, the Sun’s activity in this solar cycle is still very low. I haven’t checked up on the el nino, la nina situation but I shall update this when I find out exactly what’s its doing.
England has seen a fantastic Spring! With April seeing a CET of +3.9 Celsius above average. East Anglia has only seen 16mm of rain, an area which usually sees 150mm in a average spring season. So people and Farmers especially in that area will be crying out for a summer which will see steady rainfall to keep the reservoirs topped up.
For the UK as a whole, my summer predictions are forecasting it will maybe be a warm summer, but not endless heatwave after heatwave. Thundery downpours are likely which the consistent heat putting plenty of energy into the atmosphere. So definitely no Barbecue Summer again! But hopefully the photo of Summer Glau on the beach (from equire) made your feel like summer is just around the corner 🙂
Piers Corbyn has just released this video, and to be honest I agree with just about everything he says! The way the jetstreams are set up and the Sun’s activity increasing make for an erratic summer weather season i think.
More scientific findings will be added shortly.
Originally posted 2011-05-20 14:50:20.